The Demise of the Northwest Forest Plan

Top Line: Like bankruptcy, the death of the Northwest Forest Plan has proceeded slowly and might end quickly.

Figure 1. An old-growth forest of Douglas-fir and western redcedar. Source: Sandy Lonsdale (first appeared in Oregon Wild: Endangered Forest Wilderness).

NoteI wrote the following without considering President Trump’s recent executive order pertaining to federal forestlands. I didn’t want the Trumpian chaos to interfere with an examination of the demise of the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP), which was under way well before Trump 2.0. Fear not, I will examine what the second reign of Donald John Trump might mean for federal public forestlands in the next The Wildlife News post.

When is the Northwest Forest Plan no longer the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP)? After the Forest Service has removed the skeleton, meat, and blood, leaving only the dermis. Any resemblance the proposed NWFP bears to the original NWFP is only skin deep.

The Northwest Forest Plan is likely a dead plan walking. The Forest Service began its long campaign to emasculate the NWFP as soon as President Clinton left office. The unraveling began during and was aided by the presidency of George W. Bush. The campaign continued unabated under and was abetted by the presidencies of Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden.

See Public Lands Blog posts: “The Unmaking of the Northwest Forest Plan, Part 1: Out with Enforceable Substance and in with Performative Process” and “The Unmaking of the Northwest Forest Plan, Part 2: Remaking It for the Next Quarter Century

While the conservation community should resist the demise of the NWFP, we must and can pivot to something better (more on that later).

Map 1. The national forests within the Northwest Forest Plan. Source: Forest Service.

Some Background on the NWFP

Any bureaucracy loathes having its discretion limited. Since the end of World War II, the Forest Service—along with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM)—had been abusing the discretion granted to it by Congress in managing federal forestlands. At peak carnage in 1989, the Forest Service and the BLM were clear-cutting three square miles of old-growth forest on federal public lands in Oregon each week (see Chart 1). In 1994, President Clinton directed these agencies to adopt a conservation strategy, the Northwest Forest Plan. As a bureaucracy, the Forest Service has hated the NWFP ever since it was imposed upon it. So did the BLM (the agency abandoned the NWFP in 2016).

Chart 1. Federal logging levels by state on national forests in the NWFP area, 1985–2022. This graph doesn’t include the ~1,000 MMBF (aka billion board feet) peak of logging of BLM forestlands annually in Oregon ca. 1989. Source: Forest Service.

The NWFP allocated the 24 million acres of primarily Forest Service and BLM forested holdings in the Northwest to late-successional reserves (LSRs, 6.5 million acres), “managed” LSRs (0.1 million acres), “matrix” or free-fire logging areas (3.28 million acres), riparian reserves (RRs), stream buffers within “matrix” areas (2.1 million acres), and adaptive management areas (AMAs, 1.5 million acres).

Figure 2. This Douglas-fir is perhaps a thousand years old. The only way to know for sure is to cut it down and count the rings. Counts on nearby stumps showed more than six hundred rings on trees that were three feet in diameter at their base. Source: Umpqua Watersheds (first appeared in Oregon Wild: Endangered Forest Wilderness).

Oregon Wild, Bird Alliance of Oregon, Cascadia Wildlands, and WildEarth Guardians summarized the NWFP and its effects as follows in their initial analysis of the Forest Service’s draft environmental impact statement (DEIS) for the Northwest Forest Plan amendment:

The NWFP required agencies to shift their focus from logging the last remaining stands of mature and old-growth (80+ year old) forests to seeking to recover more older forest habitat. This first-of-its-kind ecosystem recovery plan became a world-wide model for habitat and wildlife protection, and it has succeeded in reversing the decline of mature and old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest. These recovering forests have been a lifeline for imperiled fish and wildlife, safeguarded clean water, and provided an enormous unforeseen benefit for the climate by pulling vast amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and safely storing it in their trunks, roots, and forest soils.

These four organizations (hereafter “the generally good guys”)—along with Earthjustice—are the most likely to sue the Forest Service for gutting the Northwest Forest Plan. Unfortunately, some other “conservation” organizations have taken a more favorable posture on the proposed amendment to the NWFP (think Stockholm syndrome).

Figure 3. Old-growth Port Orford cedar. Source: Steve Miller (first appeared in Oregon Wild: Endangered Forest Wilderness)

What Is Being Proposed in the NWFP Amendment DEIS?

In their analysis, the generally good guys characterize as follows the four alternatives proposed in the Forest Service’s DEIS for the Northwest Forest Plan amendment (emphases in original):

• Alternative A: No Action—retains current Northwest Forest Plan protections

• Alternative B: Proposed Action—redefines “mature” and “old-growth,” eliminates protections for unlogged mature forests in LSRs, increases clearcutting of mature and old-growth forests in Matrix lands, and increases logging in dry forests that will degrade habitat, emit greenhouse gases, and potentially increase fire hazard

• Alternative C: More emphasis on natural processes, including wildland fire, while still increasing logging through loosened protections in LSRs and new definitions for mature and old growth

• Alternative D: Even greater flexibility and “predictability of timber outputs” than Alternative B, and would eliminate rare species survey requirements before logging in certain areas

The generally good guys conclude that Alternatives B, C, and D “would weaken existing protections and increase logging on our national forests to varying degrees.”

Figure 4. The marbled murrelet nests exclusively in old-growth trees hundreds of feet above the ground and up to 30 miles from the ocean. The bird also can dive up to 164 feet deep in the ocean seeking fish to bring home to feed the offspring. Source: Gary Braasch (first appeared in Oregon Wild: Endangered Forest Wilderness).

In their analysis, the generally good guys compare the Forest Service’s proposed action (Alternative B) with the current NWFP (Alternative A) as follows (emphases in original):

Late-Successional Reserves

• Forest stands would now be considered “young” even if they are 120 years old—a major change from the previous NWFP definition of “mature” stands as 80 years old.

• Logging would now be allowed in moist “young” stands up to 120 years old in LSRs (previously restricted to stands up to 80 years old). This would open up 824,000 acres to logging—the equivalent of nearly eight Mt. Jefferson Wilderness areas.

• Rather than continue to prohibit logging activities in moist LSRs unless they restore or accelerate late-successional or old-growth conditions to benefit ESA-listed species, new exceptions would be added to allow logging to “restore habitat for other species that depend upon younger stands” and to “achieve other desired conditions,” all but eliminating the core purpose of LSRs.

• Salvage logging would be allowed in moist LSRs in certain situations, including “along existing system roads”—essentially converting burned old-growth areas into sterile tree farms.

Matrix Lands

• In moist Matrix lands, there would be no genuine restrictions on logging in stands established after 1905 (up to 120 years old), and the Forest Service would aim to log 81,000 acres a decade “to bolster timber production”—that’s 1.3 times the size of the Salmon-Huckleberry Wilderness area.

• In moist Matrix stands established between 1825 and 1905 (up to 200 years old), logging would be allowed for multiple reasons at the Forest Service’s discretion, including a broad exception for “reducing the risk of fire.”

• This shift away from stand age considerations to stand establishment dates essentially means these old stands will never age into protection, severely limiting if not outright curtailing recruitment of additional old growth—especially when combined with new logging loopholes in LSRs.

Figure 5. Ponderosa pine is a “dry” forest type. Source: Elizabeth Feryl (first appeared in Oregon Wild: Endangered Forest Wilderness).

Dry Forests

• The Forest Service aims to log at least one third of dry forest stands across all land use allocations (LSRs and Matrix) over 15 years—964,000 acres—almost as many acres as the entire Umpqua National Forest.

• Despite providing these acreage figures, the DEIS fails to provide any maps delineating where dry forests exist within the planning area, leaving undefined discretion to local managers directed to meet timber quotas.

• Within dry stands, trees older than 150 years receive nominal protection from logging, but the Forest Service includes broad exceptions for “restoration” and “to reduce wildfire risk.”

Doubling Logging from 2023 Levels

• According to the DEIS, the Forest Service logged approximately 504 million board feet of timber from the 17 National Forests within the NWFP area in 2023. Under Alternatives B and D, the Forest Service aims to log over twice that amount annually, over one billion board feet.

• Notably, the original average annual timber output estimate from the NWFP (1.1 billion board feet) included the 2.6 million acres of Western Oregon BLM lands that typically produce ~200 million board feet but are no longer part of the NWFP. The Forest Service now proposes to log much more on less public lands, meaning the adverse impacts will be even more concentrated.

• In total, the Forest Service aims to “treat” 2.65 million acres per decade across all land use allocations—the equivalent of two and a half Mt. Hood National Forests—with all the attendant adverse impacts from associated road-building and heavy machinery use.

Lack of Species Protections

• The amendment process has already faced criticism for failing to adhere to the core biodiversity conservation purpose of the Northwest Forest Plan. And now, despite rolling back habitat protections and ramping up logging, the DEIS alarmingly asserts the proposed amendment would not substantially lessen protections for species—the original purpose of the NWFP—and does not include species-specific plan components to ensure ESA-listed species’ recovery or other native species’ viability throughout the planning area.

Figure 6. Old-growth forests keep massive amounts of carbon safely out of the atmosphere. Source: Gary Braasch (first appeared in Oregon Wild: Endangered Forest Wilderness).

Big Timber’s bitch all along has been that the NWFP never resulted in their cutting a billion board feet annually. They say it was “promised” in the NWFP. In fact, it was an aspiration marketed as the “probable sale quantity,” not a requirement. (See Appendix F of my paper “Ecologically Appropriate Restoration Thinning in the Northwest Forest Plan Area,” where you will read that “even as scientists were writing the Northwest Forest Plan, most realized that the protection measures needed to ensure species viability made logging a billion board feet impossible.”) Now Big Timber is on the road to getting its way.

Revisioning the NWFP for Changing Times

As it’s been three decades, the NWFP could be updated—but a revision to a plan that’s better, not an amendment that’s worse. Many things have changed since 1994.

• In 1994, climate disruption was only beginning to reach the public’s consciousness. The importance of mature and old-growth forests for storing and sequestering carbon was only beginning to be understood. It is well understood now.

• The invasive barred owl’s ability to harm spotted owls wasn’t understood back then. It is now. Finally, efforts are under way to control barred owls.

See Public Lands Blog post: “B. Owl v. N. S. Owl.”

• Tribal nations were not consulted in the preparation of the NWFP. Especially under the Biden administration, tribal consultation has increased significantly.

• Fire in forests is more of an issue now, as climate change is making fires more intense. The Forest Service has a three-pronged approach to forests susceptible to burning: (1) log them before they burn, (2) log them while they burn, and (3) log them after they burn. The proposed NWFP amendment exalts reducing fire over all other goals, but fire is either the continuation or rebirth of a forest, and the only way to prevent forest fires is to prevent forests.

See Public Lands Blog posts:

Rethinking Commercial Thinning as a ‘Tool’ to Ecologically Restore Frequent-Fire Forest Types, Part 1: Outdated Science and Policies

Rethinking Commercial Thinning as a ‘Tool’ to Ecologically Restore Frequent-Fire Forest Types, Part 2: Burn, Baby, Burn

The Futility of ‘Fighting’ Wildfire: Elemental—A Film Review

Speaking Truth to the Fire-Industrial Complex

More Moral Hazard Than Fire Hazard: The Responsibility of Homeowners in the WUI

Figure 7. An old-growth Sitka spruce. Source: Oregon Wild (first appeared in Oregon Wild: Endangered Forest Wilderness).

What You Can Do 

Don’t even bother sending comments to the Forest Service, which has a March 17, 2025, deadline (coincidentally, today) to receive the comments. The agency is on a mission to get its discretion back and increase its budget through more logging (and fire “fighting”). Like my dog when it sees a squirrel, the Forest Service bureaucracy is focused solely on its goal, and it is deaf to anything anyone says to the contrary.

You need to do three things:

1. Litigation. Send a contribution earmarked for “Northwest Forest Plan litigation” to EarthjusticeOregon WildCascadia WildlandsBird Alliance of OregonWildEarth Guardians, and/or EPIC.

2. Election. Include a note with your contribution asking the organization what it will be doing for the 2026 midterm elections. If you hear back that due to its tax status it cannot engage in elections but a companion entity can, send that companion entity a check as well. If they don’t have a companion entity, then ask for your money back and send it to an organization that can engage in elections.

See Public Lands Blog post: “WTF Now?”

3. Legislation. Contact your two US senators and your representative in the US House and let them know it’s time for them to step up and save the nation’s remaining mature and old-growth forests for the benefit of this and future generations. You can find your senators and your congressperson here. After going to the website of each, click on “Contact.”

For More Information

Battaglia, Roman. March 7, 2025. “Northwest Forest Plan Has Left a Lasting Legacy, Despite Falling Short.” JPR: Jefferson Public Radio

Johnson, K. Norman, Jerry F. Franklin, and Gordon H. Reeves. 2023. The Making of the Northwest Forest Plan: The Wild Science of Saving Old Growth Ecosystems. Oregon State University Press, Corvallis, Oregon.

USDA Forest Service. Northwest Forest Plan Amendment Documents.

Bottom Line: These are the times that try our souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of our forests; but those who stand by the forests now, deserve the love and thanks of trees and wildlife.

Comments

  1. Jeff Hoffman Avatar
    Jeff Hoffman

    The facts pointed out in this essay are a perfect example of why obsessing on Donald Trump is wrong and unproductive. Just because Trump and other Republicans are more openly hostile to the Earth and the native life here doesn’t at all mean that Democrats or anti-Trump Republicans aren’t also evil and shouldn’t be fought against just as hard. Modern humans are mostly anti-Earth, and THAT’s what needs to change. Nitpicking about which politician is worse is a fool’s errand.

  2. Ida Lupine Avatar
    Ida Lupine

    These trees are priceless; it’s like entering into storybook lands. To think of them cut down for logging is so small-minded. Destroying them and wildlife habitat, and also taking them away from the enjoyment of the people, for money.

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Author

Andy Kerr (andykerr@andykerr.net) is the Czar of The Larch Company (www.andykerr.net) and consults on environmental and conservation issues. The Larch Company is a for-profit non-membership conservation organization that represents the interests of humans yet born and species that cannot talk. Kerr started is professional conservation career during the Ford Administration.

He is best known for his two decades with the Oregon Wild (then Oregon Natural Resources Council), the organization best known for having brought you the northern spotted owl. Kerr began his conservation career during the Ford Administration.

Through 2019, Kerr has been closely involved in with the establishment or expansion of 47 Wilderness Areas and 57 Wild and Scenic Rivers, 13 congressionally legislated special management areas, 15 Oregon Scenic Waterways, and one proclaimed national monument (and later expanded). He has testified before congressional committees on several occasions.

Kerr was a primary provocateur in getting the Clinton Administration to impose the Northwest Forest Plan in 1994, which at the time was the largest landscape conservation in the world.

He has lectured at all of Oregon's leading universities and colleges, as well at Harvard and Yale. Kerr has appeared numerous times on national television news and feature programs and has published numerous articles on environmental matters. He is a dropout of Oregon State University.

Kerr authored Oregon Desert Guide: 70 Hikes (The Mountaineers Books, 2000) and Oregon Wild: Endangered Forest Wilderness (Timber Press, 2004). His articles on solar energy, energy efficiency and public policy have appeared in Home Power magazine.

Kerr participated, by personal invitation of President Clinton, in the Northwest Forest Conference held in Portland in 1993 for which Willamette Week gave Kerr a “No Surrender Award.”

The Oregoniannamed Kerr one of the 150 most interesting Oregonians in the newspaper's 150-year history.

Time reporter David Seideman, in his book Showdown at Opal Creek, described Kerr as the “Ralph Nader of the old-growth-preservation movement.”

Jonathan Nicholas of The Oregonian characterized Kerr as one of the “Top 10 people to take to (the) Portland bank” for “his gift of truth.”

The Oregonian's Northwest Magazine once characterized him as the timber industry's “most hated man in Oregon.” In 2010, The Oregonian said Kerr was “once the most despised environmentalist in timber country.”

The Lake County Examiner called Kerr “Oregon's version of the Anti-Christ.”

In a feature on Kerr, Time magazine titled him a “White Collar Terrorist,” referring to his effectiveness in working within the system and striking fear in the hearts of those who exploit Oregon's natural environment.

The Christian Science Monitor characterized Kerr as “one of the toughest environmental professionals in the Pacific Northwest.”

Willamette Week said Kerr “is entirely unwilling to give an inch when it comes to this state's remaining old-growth timber.”

In his book Lasso the Wind, New York Times correspondent Tim Egan said of Kerr, “(h)e has a talent for speaking in such loaded sound bites that it was said by reporters that if Andy Kerr did not exist, someone would have to invent him.... (Kerr) forced some of the most powerful timber companies to retreat from a binge of clear-cutting that had left large sections of the Oregon Cascades naked of forest cover.”

High Country Newsranks Kerr “among the fiercest and most successful environmentalists.”

The Salt Lake Tribune described Kerr as "part provocateur and part policy wonk… Kerr . . . has long been a bur in the side of the cattle industry."

Rocky Barker of the Idaho Statesman said, "There were a lot of environmentalists working to stop logging on old growth national forests in the 1980s and 1990s. But few were more outspoken and effective than Andy Kerr."

Veteran Pacific Northwest journalist Floyd McKay, writing in Crosscut.com, said Kerr was "once considered [a] wild [man], aggressively challenging federal agencies and corporate land managers" who is now "an elder [statesman] in the region's environmental leaders."

His next book is Beyond Wood: The Case For Forests and Against Logging, which will argue that trees generally grow slower than money, forests are more important for any other use than fiber production, America can get nearly all of its fiber products from agricultural waste and other crops with less environmental impact, and that most private timberland in this nation should be reconverted to public forestlands.

Past and current clients include Advocates for the West, Campaign for America’s Wilderness, Conservation Northwest, Geos Institute, Idaho Conservation League, Klamath-Siskiyou Wildlands Center, National Public Lands Grazing Campaign, Oregon Natural Desert Association, Oregon Wild, Soda Mountain Wilderness Council, The Wilderness Society, Western Watersheds Project and the Wilburforce Foundation.

Current projects include advocating for additional Wilderness and Wild and Scenic Rivers in Oregon, achieving the permanent protection and restoration of mature and old-growth forests on lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management and the Forest Service, facilitating voluntary grazing permit buyout of federal public lands, conserving and restoring the Sagebrush Sea, opposing oil and gas exploitation offshore Oregon and elsewhere, and securing permanent conservation status for Oregon's Elliott State Forest.

Kerr is a former board member of Friends of Opal Creek, Oregon League of Conservation Voters, The Coast Alliance and Alternatives to Growth Oregon.

Kerr's only official public office is that of having been an Oregon Notary Public from 1983-1999.

A fifth-generation Oregonian, Kerr was born and raised in Creswell, a recovered timber town in the upper Willamette Valley. He splits his time between Ashland in Oregon’s Rogue Valley, and Hancock, in Maine’s Downeast—both recovered timber towns. He still regularly gets to Washington, DC, where the most important decisions affecting Oregon’s and the nation’s wildlands, wildlife and wild waters are made.

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